Macro risk aversion and supply and demand deadlock resonate, SHFE tin in the doldrums tests support at 260,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]

SHFE Tin Midday Commentary on June 23, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) continued its weak and volatile trend, opening at 262,320 yuan/mt and temporarily closing around 261,490 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.22% intraday. Short-term support below is noted at 260,000 yuan/mt. Market sentiment remains cautious, with a significant net outflow of funds and a decline in open interest, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude from both long and short sides.

​​Demand Side​​: Downstream consumption has entered the traditional off-season, with weak orders in the electronic solder, home appliance, and automotive sectors. The spot market is characterized by "more inquiries but fewer transactions." Only the demand for PV welding strips (accounting for 20% of domestic consumption) has maintained growth due to policy support, but the overall base is relatively small, making it difficult to form a large-scale boost.

The main LME tin contract is temporarily quoted at $323,651/mt, down 0.99% from the previous trading day. Although the easing of the Middle East situation (Trump's delay in intervening in the Israel-Iran conflict) once boosted market sentiment, LME tin remains constrained by sideways movement in the range of $32,000-33,000/mt in the short term. In terms of inventory, LME tin inventory remains low, providing some support to prices, but caution is needed regarding the potential impact of unreported inventory releases on market sentiment.

​​Short-Term Outlook​​: The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to test the support level of 260,000 yuan/mt. If macro risk-averse sentiment eases (such as signals of a policy shift from the US Fed), coupled with expectations of concentrated maintenance at domestic smelters, prices may experience a technical rebound. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the psychological level of $32,000/mt; if breached, it may rise to test the resistance level of $33,000/mt.